Black Friday is just over two weeks away, and for affiliates, this is shaping up to be one of the biggest seasons yet. 

Adobe forecasts that affiliates and partners will see one of the biggest gains in their share of US online holiday sales this year, second only to social media and well ahead of paid search. At the same time, the way people shop is changing quickly. The season starts earlier, budgets are tighter, AI search is part of the shopping journey, and shoppers are taking more steps than ever before they finally hit buy. 

To make sense of it all, we have been through a good number of the 2026 forecasts, shopper surveys and trend reports, from holiday spending predictions to research on how different generations plan to shop. Some of what they say is exactly what you would expect. Some of it is more surprising, and a few of the findings point in completely opposite directions. 

Here are our five biggest takeaways for affiliates heading into Black Friday 2026, and how to make the most of them. 

1. Shoppers Say They Are Cutting Back, but the Forecasts Say Record Spending 

Ask shoppers directly and they sound cautious. Sinch's 2026 consumer survey found that only 25% plan to spend more over Black Friday and Cyber Monday, down seven points on last year, while 34% plan to spend less. Accio's trends analysis reports that price is the deciding factor for 74.9% of consumers. 

Look at the forecasts, however, and the money is still coming. Adobe's 2026 holiday forecast expects US shoppers to spend $275.1 billion online across November and December, up 6.7%, and Exploding Topics highlights Adobe's forecast of $12.9 billion on Black Friday alone, up 9.2%. 

We think both are true. Shoppers are not spending less overall, they are saving their spending for the moments that feel worth it, which is why Experian expects tailored offers to beat blanket discounts this year. For affiliates, that puts the partners who can prove value, from cashback and coupon sites to trusted reviewers, in a very strong position. 

2. Creators Get the Headlines, but Cashback Still Drives the Traffic 

If you only read the headlines, you would think creators are the whole story this Black Friday. Adobe expects social media to grow its share of holiday revenue by 17%, TikTok Shop reports that its US sales passed $500 million over last year's Black Friday weekend, and Sinch found that social media ads are Gen Z's favorite place to hear about Black Friday deals. DHL's 2026 Black Friday report adds that 91% of Gen Z trust retailer offers during seasonal sales, making them the most receptive audience of any generation. 

Yet Adobe's own breakdown of affiliate traffic puts cashback and rewards partners at 36% of affiliate traffic, compared with 22% for influencers and creators. The quieter, value led partners are still doing the heavy lifting. 

The lesson we take from this is that it is not creators versus cashback. Creators spark the purchase and value partners close it, so programs that back both, and pay both fairly, are likely to get the most out of the season. 

3. AI Traffic Is Soaring, but Shoppers Don't Trust It Yet 

On paper, AI shopping is having a breakout year. Adobe forecasts a 130% jump in traffic from AI services to US retail sites this holiday season, DanAds points to Adobe data showing that traffic was already up 127% in August, and Experian notes that 42% of consumers used AI to help shop for gifts last year. 

Ask shoppers how they feel about it, though, and the mood is very different. Sinch found that just 26% of Americans think AI will make their Black Friday shopping easier, the lowest of any region it surveyed, and 53% of shoppers say they would trust advice from a real person more than AI. The people already using AI do seem to like it, with Adobe's own survey finding that 77% of AI shoppers felt more confident in their purchase, but most shoppers have not been won over yet. 

We read this as good news for affiliates. Shoppers are using AI to compare options, but they still want a human they trust to tell them what is worth buying, and that is exactly what good publishers and creators do. 

4. Black Friday Is Now a Month, but the Friday Itself Is Growing Fastest 

Every report agrees the season starts earlier. Experian found that 84% of shoppers had already started holiday buying by Thanksgiving weekend last year, DanAds cites Circana data showing 48% were browsing before Thanksgiving, and Sinch found that 58% of shoppers want to hear about Black Friday deals at least a month in advance. TikTok Shop has even stretched its US campaign to run from November 11 to November 30. 

You might expect all that early activity to take the shine off the day itself, but the forecasts say the opposite. Adobe expects Black Friday online spending to grow 9.2%, faster than the 6.7% growth forecast for the season as a whole. 

For affiliates, we think this means running two plans at once: an always on November presence that captures early researchers, and a sharp, well stocked push for the big days, when shoppers who have been browsing for weeks finally buy. 

5. Shoppers Want Fewer Channels, but They Take More Steps to Buy 

Marketers have spent years talking about omnichannel, but shoppers are quietly asking for less. Sinch found that the share of consumers who want promotional messages across more than one channel has fallen from 78% in 2024 to 67% this year. 

At the same time, the path to purchase is getting longer. Experian describes holiday shoppers discovering a product on social media, comparing prices on their phone, opening an email later and buying somewhere else entirely, while Accio reports that 42% of consumers blend online and in store shopping. Most of that happens on a phone, with Adobe forecasting that mobile will drive 57.4% of online holiday spending and Printful noting that mobile hit 61.6% of online transactions on Thanksgiving Day last year. 

Shoppers are also slowing down at each step. Accio's look at Black Friday shopping trends notes that consumers are shopping online less often but spending more time comparing products and reading reviews before they commit, which is exactly the moment a trusted review or deal roundup can win the sale. 

Put together, shoppers want each touchpoint to feel personal and relevant, but they will still pass through several before they buy. For affiliates, that makes two things urgent before the rush: app tracking that follows a shopper from a creator's post into a retailer's app, and attribution that recognizes every partner who played a part, not just the last click. 

What We Think It All Means 

Read together, the reports point to one big idea: trust and value are doing more of the selling this year than hype or reach. Shoppers are cautious but still willing to spend, curious about AI but still listening to people, and happy to browse for weeks but only buying when the offer feels right. 

That is good news for our industry, because affiliates have always been in the business of trust and value. We expect the winners this Black Friday to be the programs that back both creators and value partners, track the full mobile journey, and reward partners for the role they actually play. And with Adobe forecasting that affiliates and partners will grow their share of holiday revenue by 12%, we think the channel is about to have a very good few weeks. 

The Bottom Line 

The bottom line: The 2026 Black Friday reports are full of contradictions, but they all point the same way. Shoppers want value they can trust, and they are taking their time to find it. Affiliates who show up early, back both creators and value partners, and get their tracking right are set up for a strong season. 

Want to dig into these trends with the people driving them? Join us at Affiliate Summit West to connect with the brands, networks and creators shaping the future of performance marketing.